The 2012-2013 college basketball season has been like no other college basketball in recent memory. In recent years there has usually been a clear favorite or a few teams that you feel confident in each and every night. Not this year. Indiana was the clear favorite to start the year, and then they were upset by Butler. Duke was dominating early in the regular season then they lost senior forward Ryan Kelly and have struggled periodically since. Everyone really liked Trey Burke and Co. at Michigan, but they have dropped three of their last five games. There is no clear favorite this year as we approach March and, if I was a betting man, I may take this March off. Here are my five favorites to win it all and why, plus a few dark horses who could shake up the tournament:
1. Florida Gators (22-5) RPI: 5 Against RPI Top 100: 11-5
In a year where there are no clear favorites to take home the national championship in Atlanta this year, the 2012-2013 Florida Gators fit the mold for having the best chance at winning it all this year. There are multiple reasons why, but the main reason is their defense. Defense wins championships, right? The Florida Gators are as good of a defensive team as there is in the country this year. They allow the 3rd fewest points per game in the nation, giving up a stingy 53.7 points per game. The Gators also hold teams to a lowly 39.7% field goal percentage, and out rebound their opponents by 5.4 rebounds per game. Their defense plays hard and with three talented, quick defensive guards, Mike Rosario, Kenny Boynton, and Scottie Wilbekin. Add a big body in Patric Young down low and their defense throws many problems at opponent offenses.
Defense may be the Florida Gators’ catalyst, but the offense must be taken seriously because it can beat you, and beat you fast. The Gators rely on their speedy guards and stretch four man Erik Murphy to create open shots. Many of those open shots are three pointers. The Gators rank 7th in the nation in three pointers made per game by hitting an average of 8.7 each night. Erik Murphy is key here. His ability to hit 46.7% of his threes forces his man to attend to him wherever he is on the court, which opens up driving lanes for the guards. This creates kick out threes which are highly effective for a team that shoots the basketball as well as Florida does. Duke is a perfect example of why a stretch four is such an important asset to a team. Without stretch four man Ryan Kelly, Duke struggles. More focus is put on star center Mason Plumlee and driving lanes become more congested for guards. Not all teams need a stretch four to be successful, but having one can only help better your team. The Gators have four guys who have connected on 40 or more three pointers on the season. It is highly unlikely that all four guys would have bad shooting nights, but if they did, their guards are good enough to create off the dribble for themselves. Plus, with a serviceable big man like Partric Young down low the Florida Gators are a tough guard for opposing teams.
The Florida Gators have the complete package. They are deep (5 guys averaging 9 or more points per game), get after it defensively, and can torch you on the offensive end. They are also coached by Billy Donovan, a guy who has not been too bad of a coach in March winning two National Championships. The Gators are my favorite as of right now on paper, but the NCAA tournament is not played on paper, and in a year like this who knows what matters? Only time will tell.
2. Michigan Wolverines (23-5) RPI: 11 Against RPI Top 100: 9-4
“Guards win in March,” is a popular term you hear from college basketball experts, friends, or anyone else who follows college basketball and it is the exact reason why Michigan has a great chance to cut down the nets in Atlanta this year. Sophomore guard Trey Burke and Junior guard Tim Hardaway Jr. pour in, on average, 34 points per game between the two. Burke averages 18.8 per game and Hardaway Jr. contributes 15.2 points per game. They are as dynamic as they come. Having two players this good is hard to match in the NCAA tournament. Both players can beat you off the dribble and score getting to the bucket or pulling up, they can shoot from anywhere on the floor, and are lethal in transition It is extremely hard to stop one of them from getting their averages and a slim to none chance of stopping both. If the two start clicking come tournament time, it is going to be fun to watch, unless you are the other team.
Besides Burke and Hardaway, the Wolverines have a solid supporting cast that will have step up big time to propel them through the tournament. Two freshman are heavily relied upon, Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III each average double figures for the Wolverines. In their last three losses Stauskas and Robinson III have combined for only 13.7 points per game on 40% from the field, compared to their combined season averages of 22.9 points per game on 52.1% shooting. All three were close losses and if both freshman play to their capabilities, the Wolverines most likely do not drop any of those three games. Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. are going to get theirs, but Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson III have to play like upperclassman come tournament time for the Wolverines to have success.
There is no doubt the Michigan Wolverines will be ready for whatever is thrown at them when the NCAA tournament comes around. They competed in the toughest conference in the nation this season, the Big 10, and have faced adversity, like recently losing to the last place team in the Big 10, Penn State, and losing three of their last five games. Good teams respond to adversity in a positive way and make sure it never happens again, and I fully expect Michigan to do the same. If the Michigan Wolverines play the way they are capable of playing, they are as good of a team as any in the country and could be crowned National Champs this year.
3. Indiana Hoosiers (24-4) RPI: 7 Against RPI Top 100: 9-4
Indiana Hoosier basketball is back. After making it to the Sweet 16 last year, the Hoosiers are legit national championship contenders, even though just a few years ago the Hoosiers rattled off three straight losing seasons to kick off Head Coach Tom Crean’s tenure. This year is different. Led by two National Player of the Year candidates, the preseason #1 ranked Indiana Hoosiers have a chance to make some noise in the NCAA tournament.
Tyler Zeller was the preseason player of the year, but it turns out that he is not even the best player on his team this year. That guy is Victo Oloadipo. The senior hailing from national powerhouse Dematha High School, who was ranked #144 in his senior class, and was arguably unknown last year is many experts pick to win the National Player of the Year. His work ethic is praised and it is evident in how he plays. He does everything for the Hoosiers. Oladipo is second on the team in points, third in rebounds, third in assists, first in steals, and second in blocks. He does this against the opponent’s best guard on most nights. A guy like Victor Oladipo, who does all the little things, is key to have in NCAA tournament games because some games come down to the smallest things, and Victor Oladipo does them all.
Tyler Zeller is going to get his 16 points a game and 8 rebounds. Jordan Hulls is going to hit a few big threes every game. Freshman guard Yogi Ferrel is going to control the offense and limit his turnovers. Christian Watford, on the other hand, is the X-factor for this Indiana Hoosiers ball club. They will only go as far as he takes them. He often shows flashes off greatness, a la the shot to beat #1 Kentucky last year in Bloomington, but he also can become invisible in some games. He is having a solid year averaging around 13 points per game on 46.7% shooting. His numbers decrease to 10 points on 37.9% shooting in losses though. In no game this year that the Hoosiers lost did Watford play to his capability or better. Zeller has faded away in stretches, but not like Watford. If Watford steps up and plays to his ability Indiana has a three-headed monster that college teams rarely have. It is nearly impossible to guard all three of them and have a chance to win. Watford has to come in to the NCAA tournament assertive and involved in the game for 40 minutes if he wants to end his senior year on top. If the Indiana Hoosiers become National Champs, Christian Watford is going have a big say in it.
4. Kansas Jayhawks (24-4) RPI: 4 Against RPI Top 100: 13-3
The Kansas Jayhawks always seem to be in the discussion for national championship contender. Bill Self has a big role in that. Self has won an unparalleled eight consecutive Big 12 regular season titles, and, most likely, it will be nine after this year. He is a top five coach in the college game right now; a big reason why this year (and seemingly every other year) his team is in the top 5 and primed for an NCAA tournament run.
This year is no different. With one of the best defensive players in the country, Jeff Withey, freshman star Ben McLemore, senior leader and defensive stopper Travis Releford, and highly talented, but often inconsistent, point guard Elijiah Johnson, Bill Self has another talented and complete team. All four guys average double figures. Withey averages 3.8 blocks per game (3rd in the nation) and alters even more shots. This is a big reason for their success now and why they will find success in the NCAA tournament. Having a center who is as defensively good as Jeff Withey is a huge plus. Opposing teams shy away from going to the basket, guards can afford to get beat occasionally knowing Withey has their back, if he does not block a shot close to the basket, he alters it, and when Withey does block it, he is as good as anyone in the country at keeping the ball in play and getting it to a teammate sometimes. It is no coincidence why Kentucky had such a good defensive team last year and won the tournament. Their guards were solid defensively, but Anthony Davis was so good that he covered up many of their mistakes. Having a big guy like Davis or Withey is huge come March because it can change the way the other team plays and impact the game greatly.
39 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists against Iowa State the other night. No, that was not the stat line for freshman phenom Ben McLemore. McLemore is extremely talented, but is still a freshman and seems to shy away from big moments. Elijiah Johnson is a senior and that absurd stat line put up against Iowa State on Monday night belongs to him. Kansas needs Elijiah Johnson. The point guard play for Kansas has been heavily criticized all year and even partially attributed to their three game skid a few weeks back. With Kansas struggling at Iowa State on Monday, the senior guard willed them to victory. Johnson only averages around 10 points per game, but with McLemore, who averages around 16, having a quiet game, Elijiah Johnson took over. Seniors are so important when late February and March roll around. Both Johnson and Releford have been to an elite 8 and a national title game. They know what it feels like. Johnson may feel like this is his last chance and does not want to end his college career with the same taste in his mouth. The game on Monday night was a big statement and the rest of the country better take notice because IF (somewhat big if) Elijiah Johnson plays with same will and attitude like he did against Iowa State, the Kansas Jayhawks and Bill Self have to be the favorite to be have their “One Shining Moment” in Atlanta.
5. Georgetown Hoyas (22-4) RPI: 10 Against RPI Top 100: 11-3
The Georgetown Hoyas are the hottest team in basketball right now and there is nothing better as a team than being hot in late February and going into March. Just ask Kemba Walker and the Connecticut Huskies, who rattled off five straight wins to win the Big East tournament then ran the table in the tournament and won it all, how easy basketball becomes when a team is in a zone and clicking. The Hoyas have won 10 straight games and after marching into the Carrier Dome in front of a record 35,012 fans and taking down the #8 ranked ‘Cuse, they look like the best team in the country right now. This comes to a surprise to many college basketball fans though because after losing their second best player, Sophomore Greg Whittington, most people wrote the Hoyas off.
The only way to make sense of why the Georgetown Hoyas are 12-1 since Whittington was suspended is because of the Ewing Theory. The Ewing Theory is a theory thought of by the SportsGuy himself: Bill Simmons. His theory is that when a team is missing one of their best players, the team performs better. He and a buddy of his found this true when the Knicks seemingly played better when Patrick Ewing was out for the game. He has applied this theory to when Drew Bledsoe got hurt and Tom Brady replaced him, the Patriots went on the way to win the Super Bowl, and the theory holds true to various other examples. The main reason this theory holds some truth is because other players step up and some players get a chance to do more and expand their games. In this case, Otto Porter is expanding his game and doing more. Porter had a very good rookie campaign last year and people are expecting him to have a break out year. To start the year, he was playing solid basketball averaging around 12.8 points per game and 7.1 rebounds while Whittington was still playing. Whittington was suspended before the St. Johns game and people were curious how the new-look Hoyas would play. Porter had 19 points and 14 rebounds and they won by 16. Porter was thought of as a second or third team Big East player when they had Whittington (first 13 games) and now he is the one of the top candidates for National Player of the Year after having a decent 33 points and 8 rebounds against Syaracuse. He has averaged around 19.2 points per game since Whittington’s suspension and is the main reason why the Hoyas will have a great shot at the title.
The Ewing Theory can only last so long and could be a problem for the Hoyas down the stretch with only two double digit scorers in Porter and Markel Starks. Porter is carrying a heavy load and players who are not accustomed to stepping up night in and night out will have to do just that in the tournament. Porter has gotten help, for examplpe, from D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera who stepped up and had a career high 33 points against DePaul earlier in the year. The Hoyas are certainly not the most talented team in the country, but with a player as good as Porter and a team clicking as they are now, the Georgetown Hoyas have to be in the conversation for contenders to march to Atlanta and take home the championship. Just ask the 2011 Connecticut Huskies.
Dark Horses:
-Bulter Bulldogs (22-6) RPI: 29 Against RPI Top 100: 7-6: Brad Stevens. Brad Stevens. Brad Stevens. He is the reason they have a shot at the title. One of the best in the business, and in recent years may be the best come tournament time. Bulldogs also have lethal three point shooters, especially Rotnei Clarke. Also, they have beat potential #1 seeds Gonzaga and Indiana. Do not ever count out Brad Stevens and the Butler Bulldogs.
-Akron Zips (23-4) RPI: 35 Against RPI Top 100: 4-3: Why the hell not? The Zips have won 19 straight and if there is ever a year for a team like the Akron Zips to win it all, this is the year. That is all I got.
-UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (21-7) RPI:16 Against RPI Top 100: 12-6: Many experts picked the Runnin’ Rebels to not only be the best team in the Mountain West, but the whole West Coast to start the year. They have not lived up to expectations, but they have the talent to make a deep run and even win it all this year. They might have the best freshman in the nation with forward Anthony Bennett, they are 3-1 against top 25 teams, and had one of the best recruiting classes in the nation last year. The Rebels are a team I would not want to see on my side of the bracket.
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